As the City receives certified reports of enrollment numbers for this current school year we wonder if earlier lower estimates will show improvement or continue on its downward slope. In 2019 there were more than 770 thousand general education students but that number may be as low as 636 thousand this year based on original city projections. That drop represents a 17% decline in the student base that typically represents roughly 80% of enrollment in DOE buildings. As public schools continue to struggle to meet mandated spending they also grapple with a lower enrollment base. It would be wonderful if the declines are short-term due to temporary effects of the pandemic but who knows how long COVID-19 will have influence on financial, employment, housing, or school enrollment decisions?
The consequences of annual enrollment declines are that class sizes will get smaller but there might also be unanticipated staffing losses or financial upheaval for individual schools because our local school funding formula relies on numbers of students to generate dollars. Fewer students in our public schools directly translates into smaller school budgets to support the students who remain. Schools with great needs and declining enrollment would be particularly vulnerable. Currently, Federal stimulus funding supports additional student needs but the challenge is if schools can both right-size and support students before stimulus funding runs out.
Upcoming additions to the Fair Student Funding formula methodology include special consideration for schools with high concentrations of students with great needs. This change can help but will there be enough funds to impact all susceptible schools or just a top tier of lacking schools? Will school and student needs drive the amount of funds steered to schools with high concentrations of needy students or will schools have to hope to get a portion of a pre-defined pot of money? Regardless of how new funding formula changes are implemented, every parent of a public school student is encouraged to hold your child’s school accountable and hold yourself accountable as well. The charge is to make quality staff and quality curriculum along with socio-emotional supports a #1 priority in our schools. One of the greatest cities in the world can also have the greatest public schools. – February, 2023
